郎咸平：中国经济增长扭曲 真正冬天还未到.

www.cnfol.com　2008年10月20日 08:28　新快报　白明 陈庆麟

正当人们以为，冬天已经来临，只要熬过以后便是康庄大道的时候，郎咸平却宣称，目前只是秋天，真正的冬天还没有到来。

　　郎咸平认为，今天的中国已经进入到一个前所未有的工商链条时代。任何一个部门出了问题它必将出现可怕的连锁效应，即多米诺骨牌效应，2008年大萧条，江苏、浙江企业的大量倒闭就是一个必然的多米诺骨牌效应，全国的专家学者都认为楼市、股市泡沫是从流动性开始的，其实是制造业的回光返照。

中国经济增长是扭曲的 

　　郎咸平指出，中国的经济增长是扭曲的，中国经济是全世界独一无二的"二元经济"环境，同时过热又过冷。哪些部门过热？与地方政府大力推动GDP工程有关的部门是过热的,占30%，包括地产、钢铁、证券公司等部门；而民营制造业,70%的制造业都是过冷。

　　在"二元经济"里面，制造业经营条件恶化以后，钱都打到股市和楼市。以炒股为例，2006年-2007年的股市泡沫基本就是制造业资金大量进入股市，2007年5月份到11月份的大盘上涨基本上就是"二元经济"的过热所拉动，这就是去年所谓的二八或三七现象，说明经济更坏而不是更好。2007年年底股指开始不断下跌的现象则预警着"二元经济"中国过冷的制造业出现重大危机，不过目前还看不到这场危机的底限。

　　郎咸平认为，在"二元经济"环境之下，宏观调控的推出将透过三个管道，使我国经济进一步恶化。第一管道，是在宏观调控的压力之下，银行从民营企业部门大量收回流动资金，然后打给过热的部门，即资金从过冷的部门转到过热的部门；第二管道，是在于汇率、新《劳动合同法》、宏观调控的压力之下，江浙、广东的企业家尤其是出口导向型企业无法继续经营，把很多本应该用于投资的钱抽去炒楼、炒股，从过冷的部门拿出，打到过热的部门；第三个管道，简称"海尔现象"，即原先过冷部门的企业由于无法经营而拿出大量的资金到过热部门自己做开发商，这种现象非常明显。第一个管道通过银行，第二、三个管道是企业家自己的行为，以上三个管道都无法避免地使得资金从过冷的部门流到过热的部门，使过冷的部门更冷，过热的部门更热。所以造成4年宏观调控的失败。

中国企业劳动力优势已消失 

　　郎咸平认为中国经济已经从"二元经济"的磨难当中走入一个前所未有的国际金融战略当中去了。产品已经不是产品跟产品的竞争，也不是公司跟公司的竞争，更不是行业与行业的竞争，而是整条产业链的竞争，在这条产业链中，中国处于是最低端。中国企业家辛勤工作，破坏环境，浪费资源，剥削劳动力，每创造100万美元的价值同时为美国创造900万美元的产值。因此，中国越制造，美国越富裕，这个就是所谓国际分工。

　　郎咸平举例，芭比娃娃的制造成本是1美元，最后终端零售市场是10美元，那么这9美元是怎么创造的呢？是产业制造上存在6+1产业链环节。所谓6，包括产品设计、原料采购、仓储运输、订单处理、批发经营以及终端零售。这六大块能创造的价值应该是90%，制造环节的价值只占10%。而中国企业过去30年的发展，做6的居少，做1的居多，这是我国制造业衰退的真正原因。因此，他建议要做产业链的升级，让企业从1转移到大附加价值的6。

　　郎咸平指出，中国企业的劳动力优势已经荡然无存。在整条产业链里面，劳动成本只占不到2.5%，节省成本需要通过产业链的高效整合，中国的企业只要还想利用廉价劳动力，配合技术的升级或者品牌的界定，想走出国门的都很困难。比如说TCL和明基，TCL收购了阿尔卡特、汤姆森，明基收购了西门子移动，想利用廉价劳动力生产配合国外的品牌技术走出去，最后结果是轰然垮台。为什么？还是因为我国企业仍然在制造业的成本上面下工夫，而制造业的劳动成本只占产业链条的2.5%。

　　郎咸平表示，在短期之内，要确保降低投资风险，就必须确保现金流的上升；在中长期之下，要从1走到6，产业升级的正确方向，而品牌效应只是产业链高效整合的必然结果。(白明 陈庆麟)

http://finance.qq.com/zt/2008/langxianping/index.htm 郎咸平.简介-腾讯财经

http://blog.sina.com.cn/jsmedia 郎咸平.官方博客

http://baike.baidu.com/view/5424.htm 郎咸平.简介-度百

http://xianpinglang.blog.sohu.com/ 郎咸平.搜狐博客

http://www.langxianping.com.cn/ 郎咸平.中中文网

http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/郎咸平 郎咸平.维基百科

http://www.cuhk.edu.hk/puo/bulletin/issue/199702/chinese/cprofile11.htm  

香港中文大学网站介绍郎咸平教授

http://www.google.com/search?q=郎咸平&rls=com.microsoft:en-US:&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sourceid=ie7&rlz=1I7DVXA 

Asia and Europe call for joint action on markets.

Heads of state from across Asia and Europe called for a coordinated response to the global financial crisis in a two-day conference in Beijing, an event that underlined China's growing role as a diplomatic counterweight to the United States.

But the leaders fell short of offering specific solutions to the current economic troubles, which have shown no signs of slowing. On Sunday, the central bank of South Korea, where stock markets and the currency have been plunging, said that it would hold an unscheduled monetary policy meeting Monday morning, Reuters reported.

The bank, which gave no other details about the meeting, is under pressure to cut interest rates for the second time this month. Top government financial officials met Sunday with President Lee Myung Bak and agreed on "the need to stabilize market interest rates and to provide sufficient liquidity to avoid corporate bankruptcy," Reuters quoted a senior presidential economic policy aide, Bahk Byoung Won, as saying.

In the difficult balance between preserving financial innovation and ensuring adequate regulation to prevent crises, the presidents, prime ministers and other leaders assembled in Beijing tilted toward more regulation in their meetings Friday and Saturday. A joint statement issued at the conference did not suggest how to accomplish this, but it said "necessary and timely measures should be taken."

The statement did not exclude innovation, but contained a two-sentence section that indicated the preference of the attendees: "Leaders were of the view that to resolve the financial crisis it is imperative to handle properly the relationship between financial innovation and regulation and to maintain sound macroeconomic policy. They recognized the need to improve the supervision and regulation of all financial actors, in particular their accountability."

China said it would attend the international conference on the financial crisis in Washington that President George W. Bush has scheduled for Nov. 15. But without directly criticizing the United States, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China noted that the effect of global financial turmoil on Chinese financial institutions had been muted.

China has moved cautiously in allowing greater financial competition and in permitting money to flow in and out of the country. "We need financial innovation, but we need financial oversight even more," Wen said at a news conference in Beijing on Saturday, according to Reuters.

Bush and his advisers have also accepted a need for more regulation in some areas. But in a subtle yet potentially important difference of tone that reflects many years of more market-oriented policies in the United States than in Europe or Asia, the Bush administration has repeatedly said that regulation should not go so far that it prevents banks and other financial institutions from finding effective yet safe ways to meet their customers' needs.

The event in Beijing drew heads of state and other top officials from the 27 member countries of the European Union and the 10 members of the Association of South East Asian Nations as well as China, Japan, South Korea, India and Pakistan. The conclave was the seventh biennial Asia-Europe Meeting, a series of gatherings started in 1996 and last held in Finland two years ago.
In addition to Wen and President Hu Jintao of China, those attending the Beijing meeting included President Nicholas Sarkozy of France, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, Prime Minister Taro Aso of Japan and Lee of South Korea.

The statement issued at the conference contained a veiled indication of wariness about the International Monetary Fund, saying that it "should play a critical role in assisting countries seriously affected by the crisis, upon their request."

China has been blocking the release of the IMF's annual report on its economy for months because it objects to the IMF's attempt - mainly at the request of the United States - to review whether China is deliberately undervaluing its currency so as to increase exports.

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From 20 Oct. 2008 to 24 Oct. 2008 Europe Zone fail to stop the finanical meltdown, the above news is what they are now working on the stop the finanical metldown, maybe needed a big chance in finanical system.

This Dec. may have a window dressing for fund managers so will expected a sell down as investors from all over the world are redeeming their fund from unti trust funds.

Expert like warren buffet claim is a good time to buy the stock at cheap price but look like the finanical metldown will have to cool down with a longer time, may like what Japan's 90s property market bubble burst. For warren buffet, he is rich, he is able to hold on with longer period like 5 to 6 years for a stock that he bought, he know the business cycle where he had bought those stocks at cheapest price.