US Market Outlook: 2009 Will Be the Year of the Bankruptcies

Will 2009 Will Be the Year of the Bankruptcies affect Singapore Market?
This maybe the 2nd Wave of Finanical Crisis after the 1st Wave in Oct. 2008.

Japan to go down zero-rate road again

BOJ expected to cut rate today while it seeks to rein in power of yen

THE Bank of Japan appears set to cut interest rates today, returning in effect to the zero rate policy it pursued from 2000 to 2006 to counter deflation and to stabilise the Japanese financial system.

This time, Japan will join the US, where the Federal Reserve cut rates this week to near zero, and probably Britain where Bank of England deputy governor Charles Bean said yesterday that zero rates were possible.

Official warnings meanwhile grew louder in Japan yesterday of intervention by the BOJ in foreign exchange markets to stem the surge in the value of the yen, which yesterday hit a new 13-year high of near 87 yen to the US dollar. But such intervention could be neutralised by a tsunami of private capital now flowing back into Japan, analysts warned.

'We have conducted currency intervention in the past, and we will take appropriate measures, which includes that (option),' Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura said yesterday.

Japan's leading motor vehicle and electronics makers have already seen their profits savaged by the strength of the yen and yesterday chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association Satoshi Aoki called for measures to restore stability in foreign exchange markets.

Japan has conducted intervention (via the Bank of Japan, acting as agent for the Ministry of Finance) on numerous occasions in the past when the yen was subjected to sudden and sharp appreciation. But some economists say that such a move now by Japan could trigger competitive currency devaluations elsewhere in Asia and beyond.

The BOJ's Policy Board will end its latest two-day meeting around midday today and is expected to announce a cut in the central bank's short-term overnight policy lending rate from its current level of 0.3 per cent to 0.1 per cent. This is in effect a zero interest rate level as dealers say it is difficult to hold the rate at precisely zero.

Such a move is not expected to have any measurable impact on Japan's economy, which is officially in recession and which is expected to continue contracting well into next year. But it would have the symbolic effect of signalling Japan's solidarity with monetary authorities that are pushing rates down to zero to counter deepening economic recession.

What Japanese authorities appear to be hoping for through a combination of cutting rates and launching a unilateral dollar-buying operation in foreign exchange markets is to deter speculation in the yen and to re-ignite the so-called yen carry trades which had pushed the yen down to very low levels until recently.

These carry trades, which involved hordes of Japanese and other speculators selling yen and buying assets denominated in higher yielding currencies and areas - thereby pushing the yen down - have reversed in the face of the story that has swept through global financial markets and some analysts doubt they can be re-ignited in the current climate of fear and volatility.

Recently, Japanese portfolio investors have begun to sell foreign assets and repatriate capital. This appears to be an actor behind the rise of the yen, in spite of the fact that foreign investors have been selling Japanese assets.

The Nikkei 2225 stock average (up some 0.6 per cent yesterday to 8,667.23) appears stable despite selling by foreign investors, indicating that Japanese investors feel safe now with yen assets, analysts say.

Bernanke may not stay in office to see fruits of his labour

Dated on 19-12-2008

(WASHINGTON) The fruits of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's aggressive and unprecedented moves to fight off a major US recession may come too late to cement his legacy and ensure him a second term.

Mr Bernanke gets high grades from many analysts for recognising relatively quickly that the credit crunch spreading from defaulting mortgages to banks to businesses could have broader impact, and for taking bold measures in response.

'Once Bernanke realised how serious and severe his problem was, he moved quickly, and he moved aggressively,' said Bernard Baumohl, of the Economic Outlook Group in Princeton Junction, New Jersey.

In a Reuters poll, economists said the US central bank chief was early to acknowledge the scale of the crisis, especially when compared to his counterparts in Europe and Japan, and they gave his performance high marks.

Mr Bernanke looked prescient compared with European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet who in July worried enough about inflation to raise rates, only to reverse direction three months later when the financial crisis intensified.

Perhaps no one has been better equipped to handle the crisis than Mr Bernanke, who studied how central bank complacency in the 1920s set the stage for the Great Depression, and whose speeches in 2002 and 2004 laid out a detailed map for monetary policy when a central bank's interest rate drops to zero.

On Monday, the Fed pushed on into uncharted terrain, dropping its benchmark interest rate to a range at or near zero for the first time and promising to keep rates low for a long time.

The central bank went further, promising to use untested weapons to boost growth as its conventional ammunition was spent. Mr Bernanke opened the door to expand purchases of debt issued and guaranteed by government-sponsored mortgage agencies and to buying longer-dated Treasury securities.

The response in markets was largely positive, with a rally in stocks on Tuesday, albeit followed by a fall on Wednesday, and a tumble in yields on longer- dated Treasury debt.

Mr Bernanke has said the Fed is willing to bypass banks and directly provide funding to specific market areas where activity has stalled, including consumer and small business loans. Commercial real estate may follow.

The Fed's moves are likely to foster private sector risk-taking and lead to appreciation of asset prices, fuelling a recovery, said Zach Pandl, an economist with Barclays Capital.

'Our view is that these policies will gain traction,' he said. 'We've been impressed with the speed and scale, and the Fed has rarely been behind the curve. We think they've been creative, nondogmatic.'

However, there is the possibility that the Fed's actions could backfire since the rate cut has lowered the value of the US dollar, and other countries may try to lower the value of their currencies to make them more stable, said Richard Bove, an analyst for Ladenburg Thalmann.

In addition, the Fed's rate cuts have failed to lower some private sector borrowing costs, Mr Bove said. 'The Fed is not impacting the private sector,' he said in a note to clients.

But most economists don't expect the economy to show signs of rebounding until the second half of next year.

Unemployment rates, which lag an economic recovery, may be peaking next autumn, right around the time the administration of current President-elect Barack Obama needs to announce whether they want Mr Bernanke to stay on for a second four-year term.

'If by fall of 2009 there's no improvement in the economy, and indeed, if it's even worse, I can see case being made for replacing the chairman of the Federal Reserve,' said Campbell Harvey, a professor at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business. 'Politically, you would have to shake the team up.'

Mr Bernanke's detractors also point to the decision in September to let Lehman Brothers fail as a serious error of judgment. Authorities including Mr Bernanke have said they could not find a buyer for the investment bank, but the event was seen as triggering an acceleration of the economic downturn.

Mr Obama's naming of former Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers, a highly regarded economist, to a senior White House economics coordination post also raises the possibility that the President-elect is grooming him to replace Mr Bernanke. -- Reuters

明年才是真正的“严冬”

Dated on 18-12-2008

《货币战争》作者、提前半年预警美国“两房”灾难和金融海啸爆发的旅美华裔学者宋鸿兵，昨天上午接受本报记者采访时称，明年没有春 天，金融海啸将在明年4至9月间升级为第二波，届时将爆发对冲基金和保险公司的倒闭潮。他同时解释，这不是理论性的推断或凭空的猜测，而是 通过数据分析得出的时间触点。

　　提前半年预测次债危机

　　“《货币战争》一书问世时，美国次债危机未正式发生，而您却作出预测，请问您的依据是什么？”当记者抛出这个提问时，他解释，是通过大 量数据统计分析到的。他同时强调，他都能预测到，相信美国一些大的投行机构以及权威部门，应该知道金融危机的到来。

　　宋鸿兵称，目前情况来看，“危机最严重的时刻还没到来”。也即说，2008年还不是金融海啸危害最大的年头，明年才是真正的“严冬”，2009 年没有春天。明年将是金融海啸的第二波段，美国的商业银行体系会遭受前所未有的冲击，多家商业银行巨头或会在这一波海啸中倒下。

　　他说，这次国际金融危机将有四个波段，现在仅仅是第一波。明年4-9月间，还会有第二波袭来，冲击力将甚于现在。第二波金融海啸的引爆点 ,将从目前的房贷市场转向“企业债和地方政府债券”，尤其是企业债中的垃圾债。因为历史规律是：美国经济一旦步入衰退，首当其冲的就是垃 圾债。

　　他说：“到明年，美国经济正式确认步入衰退，在实体经济下滑的冲击下，垃圾债券的违约率将急速爬升，预计到9月底违约率将急升500%,从目 前的2.68%飙升至12%以上。在 62兆美元的信用掉期市场中，有20兆余美元在对赌垃圾债券，垃圾债违约率大幅飙升的直接后果是这种对赌行为将 大规模失败。”

　　“第二波金融海啸下，将有多至上百家对冲基金、保险公司等金融机构血本无归、最终倒闭；而商业银行资产负债表的问题也将暴露无遗， 直接冲击美国商业银行系统，美国五大商业银行倒掉几家是有可能的。”

　　外向型经济肯定受冲击

　　广东外向型经济占比大，美国经济衰退对我省乃至全国都将受到影响。宋鸿兵认为，明年美国经济会出现比较严重的衰退。在金融海啸的冲 击下，中国经济尤其是广东的外贸企业，当然会受到较大的影响。不过，据他估计，明年上半年实体经济恐怕会出现较大冲击。

　　有何良策规避风险呢？他提出，目前最重要的是按照中央经济工作会议的部署，扩大内需，拉动经济，做足各方面工作，有准备地度“严冬”。 至于如何扩大内需，他认为，目前最大的问题是生产过剩而消费不足。因此，我们提倡扩大内需，还要各级政府拿出切实可行的措施，才能将口号变 为现实行动。特别是要想方设法解决当前农村存在的问题，设法增加农民的收入，让农民敢于消费，消费得起。

　　我们黄金储备太少

　　这次金融危机的爆发，美国债务危机是导火索。宋鸿兵预测，这一危机可能持续3年以上，并可能演化为美元危机，而黄金在这个时候应该得到 我国上至国家下至平民百姓的重视。他认为，目前我国的黄金储备太少了。应该设法储备，越多越好，从战略上考虑，应该做到“藏金于国、藏金 于民、藏金于市、藏金于未来”。

　　他阐述我国储备黄金的必要性后指出，金融危机将引发美元危机，而黄金是美元定价的。美元越发越多，黄金石油这些美元定价的商品就会不 断上涨。美元贬值， 即是让全世界来为美国买单。因为他是最大的债务国，供应货币就等于是在还债。他还称，目前的黄金价格是低估了。以房 子为例，在同样的时间里，房产价格已涨了10倍以上，而黄金价格最多为1倍。

　　对于普通投资者来说，在金融危机来临时，首先是保护财富不要被这种振荡所吞噬，这是首要的。而赚钱是次要的。在危险的情况下，更重要 的是守住自己的钱袋子。至于投资的方向，他认为还是黄金。在目前黄金价格被低估情况下，可以大胆买入。他认为，越是美元疲软，被全世界看 空，黄金的走势就会越好。据他预测，国际黄金价格超过1000美元/盎司只是时间的问题。

　　南方日报记者 朱桂芳

　　金融海啸明夏将更猛烈

　　“危机最严重的时刻还没到来。”因编着畅销书《货币战争》而闻名、并提前预警美国“两房”灾难和金融海啸的经济学者宋鸿兵，再次 预言：金融海啸将在明年4至9月间升级为第二波，届时或将涌现企业倒闭潮，美国商业银行系统更会遭受前所未有的冲击，多家商业银行巨头 或会在此波海啸中倒下……

　　最近，宋鸿兵应邀做客建设银行佛山市分行举办的财富名家讲座。他以《金融海啸下中国经济的发展方向》为主题演讲，并预言“目前仿 佛一切风平浪静——金融市场稳定了，人心安定了，但实际上现在正处于两波金融海啸之间的波底，第二波正在积蓄力量！”

　　危机解读：根源在于资产膨胀依赖型经济增长模式不可持续

　　伴随着《货币战争》长期雄霸各大畅销书榜前三名，该书作者宋鸿兵迅速从一个默默无名的旅美华人变为备受瞩目和争议的经济学者。

　　在书中，他指出有美国政府背景的“两房”机构将因不合理操作而引致灾难，并预言“两房”危机恐将在今年6至8月间爆发。今年6月，宋 鸿兵再次预言次贷危机将演变成金融海啸。一个月后，“两房”股价腰斩、美国政府宣布接管，进而雷曼等投资银行陷入困境，危机，正朝着 他的预言发展。

　　由于他原来在房地美和房利美工作，他有大量的数据。他预言，6、7、8三个月是次贷危机暴发的高峰，美股将会进入快速下跌阶段，A股 难以独善其身。后来发生的一切，证明了他的看法。

　　“这次次贷危机从根本上来说是美元机制长期失衡下的爆发。”宋鸿兵表示，长期以来，美国是过度消费和较低储蓄率，2007年美国储蓄 率仅为1.7%，创下了1933年大萧条时代以来的历史最低记录。然而由于各种金融创新手段如雨后春笋般冒出来，使美国得以吸纳来自其他国家 的储蓄来弥补自身储蓄的不足。

　　在宋鸿兵看来，资本的膨胀在长期失衡累积下必然会有一阵调整。他认为此次金融海啸实质是虚拟经济的财富分配导致实体经济无法持续 有效运作，根源在于资产膨胀依赖型经济增长模式不可持续。

　　危机预测：金融海啸明夏升级第二波

　　“金融海啸远没有结束，2009年夏，它将会开始第二波的冲击，冲击力度也将是第一波的三倍。”宋鸿兵将此次危机分为4个阶段，次贷地 震——违约海啸——利率火山——美元冰河。目前，正处于两波中间的低谷，明年6、7、8三个月危机将会殃及美国五大商业银行。 宋鸿兵表 示，2009年夏，企业债及公债等违约问题，尤其是企业垃圾债，将导致大数额的CDS市场（CDS为信用违约掉期）发生违约危机，金融海啸将开 始第二波的有力冲击。他预计，美国垃圾债券的违约率将急速爬升，而这一切将给美国五大商业银行猛力冲击。

　　“明年信用掉期市场会发生违约危机。从美国商业银行资产负债表上看，其主要投向了表外的SIV资产、按揭抵押债券，两房债券、CDO、 CDS，以及垃圾债券，在信用违约掉期市场违约率飙升过程中，而这些放贷中的大部分将永远无法偿还了，将冲击更多的对冲基金、保险公司等 金融机构，而美国五大商业银行也将遭受前所未有的冲击，可能会在此波海啸中倒下。”

　　不仅如此，宋鸿兵认为金融海啸的冲击波远远未止，将会迎来第三波、第四波。第三波的利率火山危机，即信贷全面紧缩造成长期贷款利 率飙升，触发利率掉期市场危机，以及第四波的“美元冰河”危机。全球美元资产将出现信心危机，从而动摇美元世界储备货币的地位。

　　危机应对：游戏规则或将有新调整

　　然而，在最近美元走强形势下，有专家开始对美国经济形势看好，他们认为美元走强是由于美国经济处于复苏之中，美国与欧洲其它国家 相比，目前经济状况有所好转，已经过了最艰难时期。

　　对此，宋鸿兵另有看法，他认为目前的金融衍生品等资产是以美元计价的，市场在大量抛售这些美元资产，从而引起美元稀缺，导致美元 走强。他认为，美国的形势依然不看好，一旦每年创造的GDP全部增加值还偿还不了债务利息，美元体系可能最后会崩溃。

　　“不过，美国是游戏规则的定义者，所以并无法肯定美元体系最终一定会崩溃。但可以说的是目前这种美元体系面临着游戏规则的改变。 会有新的调整。”宋鸿兵认为。

　　问及如何评价我国对金融海啸的应对措施时，宋鸿兵承认，全球金融海啸对我国会产生不利影响，但他认为我国的金融体系仍是安全的。 对于中国政府的4万亿救市方案，他表示很有帮助，但至于力度和效果如何，还有待实际情况验证。

　　一旦关于第二波海啸袭来的预言不幸被验证，中国将如何应对？宋鸿兵坦言，目前国家出台的救市政策对稳定经济发展能产生有利的影响 ，但届时我国金融市场将遭遇一系列更新的问题，大家应提前有心理预期，着手思考新的应对之策。

　　佛山日报记者 李琳、罗超

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Invest in Gold and KISS US Dollar bye bye

There is a few ways to invest your money in Gold:-

1) Buy physical Gold coin.

2) Invest in SGX ETF Gold (GLD 10US$).

3) invest in US market on those Gold ETF:-

a) PowerShares DB US Dollar Bearish Fund (UDN)

b) PowerShares DB Gold Double Long (DGP)

c) Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Once the gold price hit ever high it will have a gold Rush effect on the Gold price as a result of world currency printed more and more that may lead to hyperinflation that are in the long term future. We cannot stop Govt. from printing Dollar notes but we can bought some gold for hedging the loss of the currency value due to dilution of dollar notes in all part of the world.

Invest in SGX ETF Gold (GLD 10US$).

For invest in SGX ETF Gold, you can used your CPF Gold investment account to invest on SGX ETF GOLD 10US$ or you used your own saving that are in Singapore Dollar (that come without CPF check)

Please click the picture to to learn to know how to fill the order for purchase the Gold ETF in SGX.

Reference:-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_Currency

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_reserves

Falling of US Dollar may have a short term effect this will have to watch Bank of Japan (BOJ) action on Japanese YEN as they are the one of the major US Dollar reserves Holder and their economy is getting hit very badly due to ever highest high Japanese Yen.

There are few thing to watch out in the investment of GOLD:-

1) China's interest rate, China currency, China's money supply.

2) Japanese Yen exchange rate, BOJ intervention of US Dollar and rate cut etc.

3) Gold supply in this market, central banks that are going to sell more Gold in the market.

4) Singapore MAS further devalue Singapore dollar. (coming April 2009)

Those Govt. have their own reason to devalue their own currency, they have to walk out of the crisis as the jobless rate in their country is getting ever high and there will be a social unrest threat to those Govt. if they don't anything at all or do too little.

Next year 2009 will be the year of currencies turbulence. we shall watch it the news for update.

Fed Cuts Rates to Near 0%, Vows to Bolster Economy

The Federal Reserve slashed its target for overnight interest rates to a record low of zero to 0.25 percent, and said it would employ "all available tools" to battle a year-long recession.

The surprise move to lower its target for the benchmark federal funds rate from one percent puts the Fed in uncharted territory. Financial markets had expected the Fed to lower rates by no more than three-quarters of a point, to 0.25 percent.

AP

In its statement, the Fed underscored its committment to use extraordinary measures, including using its balance sheet to support the credit markets.

"The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability," the Fed said.

The cut in the federal funds rate pushes it to its lowest level on records dating to July 1954, and the central bank said it would likely keep it at "exceptionally low levels for some time."

"There is no more room to cut rates, as the target cannot go negative," said economist Chris Rupkey of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.  "Quantitative easing will be the new way for the Fed to stimulate the economy going forward."

In addition to the rate cut, the Fed said it was prepared to expand already announced large purchases of debt issued by government-sponsored mortgage agencies to support the battered US housing market.

The program to buy $600 billion in debt and mortgage-backed securities from mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac already has helped pushed mortgage rates down.

The Fed, however, remained cautious about another unusual measure, which Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke first floated two weeks ago. The statement said the central bank was still "considering" buying long-term Treasury securities, which is also thought to be aimed at lowering borrowing costs by going around commercial banks.

By boosting the quantity of money in the financial system, the Fed has engaged in so-called "quantitative easing" to provide economic relief. The Fed's balance sheet has ballooned to $2.2 trillion, from close to $900 billion in September, reflecting efforts to mend the financial system.

"With this statement the Fed embarks on a no-holds barred posture to help the economy." said Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact & Opinion Economics. "The rate cut is the least of what the Fed is doing."

Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America, said the Fed emphasized its intention to focus on "open market purchases of agency mortgages and debt, which will involve allowing the federal funds rate go toward 0%."

Prices for US stocks and government debt shot higher, while the dollar slipped, on the Fed's announcement.

"It's a highly unorthodox and creative step," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist, at the Bank of New York-Mellon in New York. "We think it's the best possible move for the U.S. consumer and for the financial market."

The Fed's unusual decision to establish a target range for the federal funds rate rather than a set level is a clear response to recent market conditions, where the rate has actually traded well below the one percent target.

The Fed is "acknowledging that", Bob Doll of BlackRock told CNBC. In recent days, the rate has been solidly below 0.25 percent.

In its statement, the Fed signaled its intentions by saying circumstances "warrant" keeping interest rates low for "some time." The Fed empoyed a similar telegraphing approach during the 2003 period when there were worries about inflation. That successfully managed the market's expectations.

"He [Bernanke] took the conventional funds rate out of play," says David Jones, of DMJ Advisors. "He's saying I'm going to use everything in my power."

Doll says the Fed is trying to get investors to buy a broader range of debt products than Treasuries, which have benefitted from an enormous flight to safety in recent months.

If successful, investors will move to government agency securities and then corporate bonds, which market strategists say is a necessary precondition to any sustainable improvement in stock prices.

Though economists and money managers welcomed the Fed's latest innovation, it did raise some concen about the state of the economy.

"The economy must be in pretty bad shape if the Fed needs to jump market expectations and push rates just a hair above the zero line," said Rupkey.
One veteran economist—among those who thought the Fed had already eased more than enough—said the central bank may have created an interesting predictament for itself and the markets going forward.

"What will the statement at the end of January say other than offer a litany of all the risky assets they are buying," asked Ram Bhagavatula of Combinatorics Capital. "How does that indicate whether monetary policy is more or less easy?"

—AP and Reuters contributed to this story.

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US Dollar is expected to drop over the long term, Fed have cut the Fed fund rate to the lowest ever seem in US history. you have to buy Gold for hedging against Dollar falling. The reason to buy Gold is simple because Gold in this earth is limited as the US Dollar is unlimited, Fed needed to print as much Dollar note to bail out those Banks and companies that needed the money to finance their business operation.

Next year 2009 Singapore Dollar may will depreciate by printing more Singapore dollar, this is to invite more direct investment to Singapore, to simulate the export for income. In this method the depreciate of Singapore Dollar will maintain the US strong Dollar policy. There may have a side effect in the future economy growth that is inflation. The inflation actually come from US but all over the world central banks will print more their currency notes, in another word, this wil import US inflation to their own country so inflation in future cannot be avoided if MAS want to depreciate Singapore Dollar by printing more notes the amount of monies to be print in order to maintain that strong US Dollar policy to a standard will be huge. So what do you think about the gold price in the future will be?

Sell These Assets Before The Ground Gives Way Beneath Them.

Publish Post

Bill Bonner - Mon 15 Dec, 2008

The ground is giving way beneath our feet: Sell the dollar... Sell Treasuries...

Sell these assets before the ground gives way beneath them Sell the Dollar and Sell Treasuries London, England

The ground is giving way beneath our feet: Sell the dollar...Sell Treasuries.

People still stand their ground...they do not panic. They do the right thing. But then, they go into work – but find they have no jobs. They look at their pension account – wisely invested in a diversified portfolio – and find that it has lost half its value. And their houses lose 20% of their value. In places such as San Diego, Las Vegas and Miami, the losses are more like 30%- 40%.

The ground gives way...and they find themselves in Hell.

Friday, the Dow registered a 61 point improvement, after much disappointment the day before. Is the rally on or off? We don’t know...

But what MUST happen, WILL happen. Fish gotta swim. Birds gotta fly. And bubbles gotta pop. The bubble in private debt has popped already. And now, the bubble in public debt has to pop too. And the dollar’s got to go down. That’s when the ground will really give way... For many people, the collapse of the dollar will wipe out what is left of their assets. Pension funds and insurance companies will be devastated. Savers will be unsaved.

Investors have rushed from risky investments of all sorts – emerging markets, mature markets, real estate, commodities – into the strong, welcoming arms of the US Treasury market. “Give me your tired, your poor huddled masses of dollars...yearning for protection from capitalism,” says Uncle Sam. “And I’ll give you 2.58% return over 10 years. Give me your money for 91 days, and I’ll give you nothing.”

Is that a good deal, dear reader? It depends on how solid the ground is under the US Treasury market. So far, as the ground gives way under other asset classes, the Treasury market has held solid.

But here is why the word “must” was invented. When something’s gotta happen, it’s gotta happen. The US Federal government already has an official national debt over $10 trillion. The deficit for next year will likely exceed $1 trillion...and could reach up to $2 trillion by 2010 – or more than 4 times the biggest deficit the country has ever run...and more than the entire US budget only 7 years ago. At this rate, in a couple of years, US debt will exceed US GDP.

Is it likely that the feds can so greatly increase the quantity of US debt without reducing the quality of it? Is it likely that the last IOU issued by the federal government will be as valuable as the first? No, it’s not likely. Something’s gotta give.

And we are talking about big money. A business or a small government can sometimes borrow more than its annual revenues. It’s borrowing can be funded by a small percentage of the world’s reckless savers. Lending to US government on such a scale is another matter. It takes up a large percentage of the world’s total savings, effectively shouldering other borrowers out of the way, and actually reducing the world’s capacity for economic growth.

Everybody, except bankers of course, knows that lending large amounts to a small country is extremely speculative. But lending to the US for ten years at 2.58% has a nasty stink of certainty about it. You can’t borrow that kind of money without some consequences...and the consequences of that much debt are bound to be bad.

To us, it seems almost inevitable that it will turn out to be a bad place to put your money. Because the ground is almost sure to give way beneath the feet of Treasury-market investors. How so? Ben Bernanke has already told us. When the borrowing gets tough, the Fed will turn to other forms of liquidity – buying US treasury bonds itself. In other words, instead of borrowing from savers – thus leaving the net money supply unchanged – the Treasury will borrow from the Fed. Where will the Fed get trillions of extra dollars? It will create them out of thin air.

That’s why the dollar has turned down.

“Greenback’s haven status thrown into doubt,” reported the Financial Times.

Last week, the euro jumped to $1.33 – a level it hasn’t seen in many months. And gold keeps edging up. It’s up to $820 an ounce as of last week.

The dollar is Hell-bound, dear reader. Sell it. And sell Treasuries too. We might be early with this advice. But we won’t be wrong.

*** If you want to own gold coins, you’ll pay $870 - $890 an ounce. Coins are scarce. People are looking for something solid to hold onto. Coins are solid. They are portable. They have no hidden liabilities.

And you won’t pick up the paper and find that a crook like Bernard Madoff has stolen away the value of your gold coins. The latest Wall Street desperado took investors for some $50 billion. And now the FBI, SEC and all the gumshoes and hacks are making a big deal of it.

Of course, in purely financial terms it is a big deal. The press has labeled it a “ponzi scheme.” But Charles Ponzi took in only $10 million. Peanuts compared Madoff’s scheme.

Another important difference. Ponzi took money from ordinary investors, widows and orphans. But Madoff went for bigger game – hedge funds, banks, and professionals. Today’s news tells us that the world’s largest bank – HSBC – was a victim. Banks in Geneva said they were out $4 billion. The Fairfield Greenwich Group said it had invested $7.5 billion with Madoff.

Of course, we don’t like to see widows and orphans get scammed. But hedge funds? Banks? Who can honestly say that they don’t enjoy seeing these mighty moneymen tripping over their own greedy delusions? Here at the Daily Reckoning...the news of Wall Street’s losses cheers us up...like reading the obituaries and finding no mention of our own name.

But when you own a gold coin you won’t have to wonder if the balance sheet is made up...or if the trades were fictitious...or why the SEC was asleep at the switch. A gold coin is what it is...no more, no less.

When the ground gives way...gold coins stay right where they were – or go up in value.

Not that we’re urging you to buy gold coins. We did that for the last 8 years. Now, you’re on your own.

*** Word from the Washington Post is that autoworkers are “angry.” Why should they be angry? They’ve been paid far too much (compared to autoworkers in, say, India) for far too long. Now their gravy train seems to be stalled on a sidling and they want the government to “do something” to get it going again.

It isn’t fair for the feds to bail out Wall Street but not Detroit, they say.

Elsewhere in the news, Bloomberg has asked the Fed to reveal what it did with the $2 trillion in emergency loans it passed out. Surely, the money went to the Fed’s clients – banks, and financial institutions generally. How? To whom? What were the terms? The Fed wouldn’t say. It refused the Freedom of Information Act petition on several grounds.

“Blank check for banks, pink slips for Detroit,” is how Gretchen Morgenson explains it in the New York Times.

The UAW (United Auto Workers) has a point, of course. Neither industry should be bailed out. But if you’re going to throw money around in Manhattan, why not toss some to Detroit?

But the autoworkers can stop kvetching. Detroit will get its bailout too. Just wait.

*** “What Hell Really is...” said the sign in front of a church in Arizona. “Choir practice at 4 PM!” was the next line.