Oil Jump More Than $6 on US's NYMEX.

Are the world getting themselve ready for high oil price with the oil peak period? (The long ever Oil crisis). This is not everyone like to see it happen but it really happen.

The news is retrieve from Bloomberg on Aug. 21:--
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Crude oil rose more than $6 after the signing yesterday of a missile-shield agreement between the U.S. and Poland bolstered concern that Russia may disrupt the flow of oil, and as a weaker dollar increased the appeal of commodities.

The U.S. missile shield in Europe, which has ``a real anti- Russian potential, won't increase the continent's security,'' Russia's Foreign Ministry said. Russia is the world's second- biggest oil producer. Energy and metals futures also climbed as the dollar fell to the lowest against the euro in a week.

``The tensions between Russia and the West were supposed to be simmering down but they are now ratcheting up because of Poland's agreement with the U.S.,'' said Gene McGillian, an analyst at TFS Energy LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``The fall of the dollar is sending a huge investor flow into commodities.''

Crude oil for October delivery rose $5.72, or 5 percent, to $121.28 a barrel at 12:01 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest increase since June 6. Oil rose as much as $6.48 to $122.04 a barrel, the highest since Aug. 4. Futures are down 17 percent from a record $147.27 reached on July 11. Prices are up 75 percent from a year ago.

Brent crude oil for October settlement rose $6.02, or 5.3 percent, to $120.38 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.

``The dollar has been the big driver of both the rally and the pullback,'' said Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International in Wilton, Connecticut.

The dollar fell to $1.4875 per euro, from $1.4747, and touched $1.4891, the weakest since Aug. 14. The U.S. currency has climbed versus the euro since touching an all-time low of $1.6038 on July 15.

Hard Assets ``The dollar's rise was too swift to have faith in,'' said John Kilduff, senior vice president of risk management at MF Global Inc. in New York. ``The resumption of the currency's fall has increased the appeal of hard assets.''

The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index, which tracks 26 raw materials, gained 3.6 percent to 1503.858 today, the highest since Aug. 1.

Russia has defied calls by U.S. President George W. Bush and other Western leaders for an immediate withdrawal from Georgia since a cease-fire agreement last week ended five days of fighting.

The Baku-Supsa pipeline, which pumps more than 100,000 barrels of oil a day from Azerbaijan to the Georgian port of Supsa on the Black Sea coast, is still shut on security concerns following fighting between Georgian and Russian troops, Toby Odone, a London-based spokesman for BP, said today by telephone. Railway transportation to Georgia's Black Sea ports has also been suspended because of a damaged bridge.

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which transports oil from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey's Mediterranean coast, will be fully operational this week and tanker loading will resume next week, officials said. The pipeline has a capacity of 1 million barrels a day.
`Geopolitical Worries'

``I've been waiting for the gathering geopolitical worries to pump up the security premium,'' Kilduff said. ``The increase in tension with Russia will probably spell the end of cooperation on the Iran nuclear front.''

The U.S. and its European allies are trying to persuade Iran to halt its uranium enrichment program, saying it's a cover for developing nuclear weapons. Iran is the world's fourth-biggest oil producer.

``The hope was that Russia's fields would be developed and the barrels made available,'' Kerr said. ``If you are a multinational, you are already afraid of nationalization of your assets. Now, with the recent problems between Russia and its neighbors, nobody is going to invest there.''
TNK-BP, a 50-50 venture between BP Plc and a group of billionaires known collectively as AAR, is embroiled in a dispute over strategy and management. BP, which relies on the company for almost a quarter of its output, is struggling to maintain control amid pressure on foreign employees.

Gasoline Supplies U.S. gasoline supplies fell 6.2 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Department said in a report yesterday, more than double analysts' predictions. Crude-oil stockpiles rose 9.39 million barrels to 305.9 million barrels, the biggest gain since March 2001, the report showed. Stockpiles fell the previous week when Tropical Storm Edouard hit Texas.
Refineries operated at 85.7 percent of capacity in the week ended Aug. 15, down 0.2 percentage point from the week before and the lowest since the week ended May 2, the report showed.
``The market shrugged off the big crude build because they attributed it to delayed imports that couldn't arrive during the week of Edouard,'' McGillian said. ``More attention was paid to the drop in gasoline stocks and refinery runs. If refiners continue to operate at this level we won't be able to build product inventories.''

Gasoline for September delivery rose 13.69 cents, or 4.7 percent, to $3.0472 a gallon in New York.

Pump prices haven't increased since July 19, according to the AAA, the nation's largest motorist organization. Regular gasoline, averaged nationwide, fell 1.5 cents to $3.702 a gallon, the AAA said today on its Web site. Prices reached a record $4.114 a gallon on July 17.

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Is the coming future oil supply depend on Russia? If let's say Saudi lost the world oil producer title with the weak oil proved reserves figure that put up by them.

Russia maybe the potential country that able to replace Saudi's world Top oil producer position.
Most scientist may will said, "the Russia is the world largest land in this earth got the most potential in conventional oil recovery."

Will Russia use Oil as a weapon in the future? If that really happen the world will have to suffer the ever crisis that never seen before. no one know what Russia thinking now and also the future.

How much you know about Russia Govt. and the country?

NOTE: The above facts are come without any proof to proof them but the facts can be found from it's fundamental figure that are come from the internet. I will try my best to find the fundamental figure and some facts to support for this article that I posted.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html

Who is Boris Berezovsky?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Berezovsky

The show for Boris Berezovsky in "The Russian Godfathers (BBC) Ep 1" - The Fugitive.
There six parts of them, will take sometime for watching them, please enjoy watching.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thy3C_rlUGc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_KB6mOCrSE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwPXpr1rr8Y

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgftWsKABlc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2e8irtXUkBs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPeMuBcG4ok

Please enjoy watching those videos they are filmed by BBC with the real facts story.

Hot money come to China in march 2008.

What is Hot money in economy term?

In the economics, hot money refers to funds which flow into a country to take advantage of a favourable interest rate, and therefore obtain higher returns. They influence the balance of payments and strengthen the exchange rate of the recipient country while weakening the currency of the country losing the money. These funds are held in currency markets by speculators as opposed to national banks or domestic investors. As such, they are highly volatile and will be shifted to another foreign exchange market when relative interest rates make this more profitable.

This kind of hot money fund can be may come from various way, it can be borrowing of huge fund from bank while the interest is very low for an example 0.5% prime lending rate.

Hot money is a major factor in capital flight and the ability of developing nations to finance their debt. As large sums of money can move very quickly to take advantage of small fluctuations in interest rates and currency values, countries which have difficulty raising money through the sale of long-term bonds are particularly susceptible to short-term interest rate pressure, particularly during periods of rapid inflation. These types of transactions were largely responsible for the currency crises in Mexico and Asia during the 1990s. See 1994 economic crisis in Mexico and East Asian financial crisis.

In part to reduce the influence of hot money on a nation’s economy, a few nations have minimum time requirements for investment. For example, Chile requires all foreign investments to be put in a one-year-locked account. Although this sort of control reduces investment in a country, it also makes its economy less susceptible to currency flight.

Hot Money is a form of fund that come in vey sudden with huge amount and is undetectable by government or market, it also goes very sudden and quickly.

alright below is the news that I retrieve from Chinadaily dot com.

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Foreign investments and international hedge funds, some of which are speculative hot money, are now elbowing into the China market. They're lured by the Chinese people's emerging consumption power, and expectations of the Chinese yuan appreciating higher.

The Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday that China drew $18.13 billion in overseas investments in January and February, shooting 75.2 percent year-on-year.

Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming, who was promoted to the post late last year, said at a news conference in Beijing that the reason for the big increase of overseas capital in the first two months was due to the big increase in large-scale investing projects and a stronger yuan.

Chen's ministry, which oversees foreign trade and domestic consumption, said that during the first two months, investments from the European Union countries rose a whopping 109 percent, while investments from the United States increased 44 percent.

Wild expectations abroad that the yuan will continue to rise in value against major world currencies has led to money coming to China.

"When you bring US dollars to invest in China, you need to change it into the yuan. Naturally you would like your funds to enter China at an earlier date. Because, if you are late, the same amount of dollars will turn out to be less yuan bills," Chen told reporters.

China's foreign exchange administration, under the auspices of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, said in its latest report that the country's total foreign exchange reserve has reached nearly $1.59 trillion by the end of January, the world's largest.

China's currency, also called the renminbi, has been constantly rising in value. The People's Bank of China, set the medium parity trading price at 7.0970 against one US dollar on Thursday, a new record high. The yuan has gained 3 percent against the dollar in value since the beginning of 2008.

The sharp increase in the stock of hard currencies has triggered another round of concern on speculative hot money flowing into China, posing potential risks to China's financial system stability.

Wu Xiaoling, deputy head of the National People's Congress's Finance Committee, who was a former central banker, said that the American subprime crisis and the rising trend of the yuan's value will make world speculative funds come to the China market to seek profits.

When asked by reporters whether the hot money has arrived in the name of foreign direct investments, Minister Chen Deming said: "I can hardly tell their entering channels, and their volume. It belongs to the management of the foreign exchange administration."

Economist Suggests Quick Appreciation.

Liang Hong, economist at the Goldman Sachs, argued in a written article published by a major Chinese financial newspaper on Thursday that Chinese monetary authorities should consider quickening the appreciation pace of the yuan, to fight domestic inflation, which approached to 8.7 percent in February.

Others have suggested another "one-off" big rise of the value of the yuan, possibly 5 percent against the greenback by the central bank, to block more hot money from flooding in.

Liang said in her article that "allowing a marked rise in the yuan value is the most opportune policy instrument to curb inflation, as well as rectify the foreign trade imbalance".

She also argued for immediate interest rate hikes to thwart inflation, otherwise the Chinese economy faces an increasing risk of a hard-landing.

Singapore cuts growth forecast to 4%~5% for the 2008 GDP!

Singapore Prime Minister Lee said in his National Day message, that he has cut the 2008 GDP growth forecast to between 4 per cent and 5 per cent from an earlier estimate of between 4 per cent and 6 per cent.

Prime Minister Lee said the country faces a tough time in the year as it is beginning to feel the impact that affect by the US economy slowdown.

"For the whole year, Prime Minister Lee expect growth to be between 4 and 5 per cent," Prime Minister Lee said in his annual message, which was televised on the eve of Singapore’s 43rd birthday.

Prime Minister Lee said the Singapore economy had expanded by 4.5 per cent in the first six months of 2008.

"Singapore’s economy has so far been partly buffered, because singapore economy have been carried along by the vibrancy of the Asian region. But Asian economies are starting to feel the impact of America’s problems, and so are Singapore. Singapore must therefore prepare themselves for a bumpy year ahead," as Prime Minister Lee said.

Prime Minister Lee also acknowledged the problems Singaporeans are facing are due to global inflation. And while the government cannot prevent prices from going up as they are worldwide, it is trying to lighten the burden on Singaporeans through schemes like Workfare and ComCare.
"The government are doing the next best thing: to put in place effective relief measures, and provide the poor and the needy with the help they need. Singapore government must look beyond immediate problems like the cost of living, to understand what is happening in the world around us, discover new opportunities and tackle Singapore's longer term challenges," he said.
The annual message is seen as a prelude to the National Day Rally, where the Prime Minister goes into further detail on the long term challenges facing the country.

In the televised message on Friday, Prime Minister Lee highlighted three other points.
First, the upgrading of Singapore’s economy: to do so, there must be investment in its people. One way is through education. To that end, Singapore is building a fourth university which will take its first batch of students in 2011, well ahead of the original target of 2015. The publicly—funded university will have its campus in Changi.

The second point Prime Minister Lee highlighted was how to encourage Singaporeans to have more children to boost the country’s total fertility rate, which currently stands at only 1.29
Prime Minister Lee said: "The government can create an environment where Singaporeans see them (children) as a natural and important part of life, and where young couples get support in starting families. The government have looked at this comprehensively and will take further steps to address the practical problems which couples face."

Prime Minister Lee also spoke of adapting Singapore to be able to educate and engage what he called "cyber—citizens".

Prime Minister Lee said: "Singapore must adapt themselves to it, and use it to educate and engage their cyber—citizens. The government will evolve their policies and rules, Singapore economy and society, to take full advantage. The government will continue to open up their system progressively."

Prime Minister Lee hinted that the country will continue to open up space for political and societal debate, saying it is the "right way to go". But he also said that as the country continues to open up, its new generation of citizens need to understand that all freedoms come with responsibilities.

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Be prepare for the tough time to come, the impact I believe will last for two to three year down the road. there is an example to see is Japan's property bubble in 90s.

we in the world of globalisation, the impact of US economy slowdown will spread around the world.

Just hope that the credit crunch crisis will over soon and the economy will have a bull run again.

There is news list for reviewing:-

Italy economy contracts, bringing recession close.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/366035/1/.html

OECD sees growth easing in top economies.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/365915/1/.html

Japan's longest post-war economic recovery over.
"It is possible that the economy may already be in a recession,"
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/365596/1/.html

Singapore banks sound warning after mixed results.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/365581/1/.html

Barclays says net profit slides 35% in first half. (Barclays is the 18th largest company in the world according to Forbes.)
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/365498/1/.html

AXA reports 32% profit slump on sub-prime damage. (The 15th largest company in the world by Fortune.)
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/365534/1/.html

Freddie Mac's rising losses bode ill for US housing crisis.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/365456/1/.html

BNP Paribas second quarter profits down 34%
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/365221/1/.html

Societe Generale reports quarterly profit slump, but shares rally.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/365008/1/.html

Greenspan warns US governments may have to bail out more banks.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/364947/1/.html

Analysts say Asian economies yet to feel real impact of US subprime crisis.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/economicnews/view/364863/1/.html

POSSIBLE of Global SLOW DOWN in economy.

In the recent higher crude oil price hit at near US$139 per barrel during Friday NYMEX trading , also there is a number of anlaysts put up their target for this year end at US$150 per barrel.

What have done is been done, American President George W. Bush have asked Saudi King to produce more crude Oil output for second time but the King disagree to increase oil output, the reason for his disagree are market having enough oil supply, maybe he are refering the 1971 oil crisis that don't even had any oil supply to oil consumer countries. Some believe Saudi have reach it Oil peak. (What is oil Peak? please check " Hubbert peak theory ")

Some of the country Govt. have subsidize the cost of higher oil price by using govt.'s extra fund that are ended up exhaused their fund that the Govt. forced to remove subsidize so sudden and so large amount that might put the their economy at halt.

All this is cause by lack of putting more interest in alternative Enegry investment and Research in Govt. level in the previous time, why I said it in this way? look country like Brazil is a sucessful country that make full used of sugar cane to convert to Ethanol fuel for so many years. So this is the country that you can put more money in for investing in the coming future. Why Brazil used only sugar cane not other crops to do it? That's is because Sugar cane can have the best yield in getting higher percentage of alcohol that are useable in modern combustion engine that are unlike corn is a lousy crops for yielding Ethanol fuel, that's is why American can't push whole nation wide to use more crops yielded Ethanol fuel, also America is not a suitable place to crops sugar cane that unlike Brazil where the Sunlight, Temperature, water vapour and soil is most suitable for crops sugar cane, beside Brazil there is India the second suitable cropping sugar cane for Ethanol fuel. India might not be a great country to be invest why? because their country do have a bit of price control policy and they used more on crude oil. India Govt. not very good in managing matters, like setting a foreign company in India have to goes thru a number of Govt. sector for an apporval.

With the Global population is increasing there are things needed to be change for economy progress, might be a new economy evolution? example like modify genetic engineering crops... If the change not fast and aggressive would lead to a possible global down in economy, therefore a country wide expansion is not possible. What I really want to tell you is invest in Alternative Enegry is Not Guarantee if you really study in Depth you will food from your Reseach.

NOTE: World population is marching toward 7 billions in 2010. Exiting about 2.4 billions people upgraded to middle class to obtain a modern standard of living. (example China, India, Vietnam and others) What gonna to do with all this? population will drive the demand in everthings as human need to live with a modern standard of living.

Main side effect of price control.

I just got this news from net. Just read it then you will know what the out ome of the price control in those China big company......

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News: Chinese oil giants to get tax rebate amid price controls

China's two major state oil companies will get a tax rebate on gasoline and diesel imports to help offset losses blamed on price controls, the government said Wednesday.

China National Petroleum Corp. and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., better known as Sinopec, will receive a refund on a 17 percent value-added tax on imports between April 1 and June 30, the Finance Ministry said on its Web site.

The government ordered the companies in November to step up imports to ease fuel shortages. CNPC and Sinopec blamed the shortages on controls that barred them from passing on record-high crude prices to consumers, leading to losses for their refining units and prompting them to cut back output.

The rebate "is aimed at reducing the refining losses of the oil companies and increasing refined oil products supply in the domestic market to prevent a shortage," the government newspaper China Daily said.

CNPC will receive a rebate on imports of 4.2 million barrels of gasoline and 8.5 million barrels of diesel, while Sinopec gets a rebate on a similar amount of gasoline and 12.7 million barrels of diesel, the Finance Ministry said.

Beijing froze retail gasoline and diesel prices in September as part of efforts to contain rising inflation. It raised prices by about 10 percent in November to curb surging demand but has rejected appeals by the oil companies for more increases.

Analysts had expected the oil companies to get government aid to offset refining losses. They received similar aid at the end of 2006.

Sinopec, Asia's biggest refiner by volume, said this month its refining unit lost 13.7 billion yuan ($2 billion) in the latest quarter due to the price freeze.

Sinopec said it received a 12.3 billion yuan ($1.75 billion) government subsidy to compensate for the losses.

CNPC's publicly traded arm, PetroChina Ltd., said in March that its refining unit lost 20.1 billion yuan ($2.9 billion) in the latest quarter due to the price freeze. The company has not said whether it received a government subsidy.

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So far there is only two big oil company that have their taxes offset / Taxes refund. Others China company are able to withstand this type of price freeze by govt.?

This article tells when the China govt. freeze the price of those products that those company produced, it will lead a volume cut back in those company output of products, if things goes bad, the company might may fall into bankrupt and that would be marked The End.

The Lesson to be learn from Japan.

Lesson to learn from Japan, as Japan want to share it to US, this is the story below:-

The United States should use public funds to shore up its financial system and calm recent market turmoil, Japan's financial services minister said in an interview published Monday. "It is essential (for the US) to understand that given Japan's lesson, public fund injection (into the financial sector) is unavoidable," Yoshimi Watanabe told the Financial Times.

He said Japan was ready to share its experience with the United States at the Group of Seven meetings of finance ministers, who are due to gather in Washington next month. "We are prepared to take coordinated action if necessary," he said. "We must recognise that the current crisis is not as straightforward as past dollar crises." The same newspaper reported over the weekend that US and European central banks were considering buying mortgage-backed securities to resolve the credit crisis triggered by a wave of US home loan defaults.

The problems have pushed the dollar down to a 12-year low against the yen and to the lowest-ever levels against the euro, causing concern in Japan and the eurozone about the impact on exports. Japan suffered a deep and prolonged banking crisis in the 1990s after the country's asset bubble burst, leading to the failure of a number of high-profile financial institutions. The Japanese government injected capital to the banking sector in an effort to shore up markets and struggling financial institutions, some of which were nationalised to prevent their collapse. The problems came amid Japan's "lost decade" of stagnant growth and on-off recession in the 1990s, from which the country is still recovering.

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This is the same kind of matter that happen in Japan's property bubble. If the crisis is very serious it may have a serverity deflation in all asset in US just like Japan that time. Is not hard to find some information that Japan had the property bubble that cause a great deflation.

is there a advantage for currencies to pegged with weak dollar?

This is the news that I get from internet that said:-

Abundant liquidity, triggered by sharply higher oil revenues, and the effect of currencies pegged to a weakening dollar are fuelling inflation in the Gulf region, economists say. And the situation is so serious that Gulf business leaders will meet in Bahrain on Monday to get advice from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union on how to tackle the problem. "The growth of money supply in Gulf countries has in some cases exceeded 20 percent," leading Bahraini economist Ahmed al-Yusha told AFP this week. "This reflects in (higher) demand, and consequently affects prices." Gulf Cooperation Council members Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been enjoying a windfall of oil revenues on the back of record crude prices. But the surge in revenues, which have injected GCC economies with a shot of energy reflected in impressive economic growth, has also left countries awash in cash.

The IMF expects overall GCC inflation to rise to six percent in 2008, with consumer prices in some member states rising at much higher rates. The UAE and Qatar registered 9.3 percent and 11.8 percent, respectively, in 2006. Most final inflation figures for 2007 have not been released, but inflation is estimated to have hit 11 percent in the UAE and 12 percent in Qatar. Saudi Arabia, which traditionally had a fairly low inflation rate, reported a 4.1 percent rise in its consumer price index in 2007. A key element in higher prices is the sharply higher cost of housing. Even though the region is experiencing a frenzy of construction, there is still a bottleneck in supply. The increase in the cost of goods that are imported from non-dollar zones is also blamed. A December study by the Federation of GCC Chambers blamed inflation mainly on the huge money supply and the peg of all GCC currencies - except the Kuwaiti dinar - to the deteriorating dollar. "Available liquidity that is accompanied by a fixed supply of goods and services ... and the drop in the value of local currencies due to the weakening of the dollar" are the two main reasons for inflation, said the Saudi-based federation, which groups the region's chambers of commerce, industry and agriculture. The study pointed out that the weakening greenback contributes to the "increase in the cost of GCC imports from countries whose currencies had appreciated against the dollar, like the EU, Japan and China." "The imports of the GCC jumped from 154.5 billion dollars in 2003 to 376 billion dollars in 2007, a 143 percent increase," the study said. The dollar peg forces GCC central banks to follow the US Federal Reserve in setting interest rates. But while the US central bank continues cutting rates to stimulate a sluggish economy, GCC central banks are faced with expanding economies that were already overheating at the higher rates. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve slashed key interest rates three-quarters of a point, lowering the federal funds rate to 2.25 percent, and most GCC central banks followed suit with cuts of their own. Dubai-based investment bank EFG-Hermes said on the same day that the need for a "currency reform" in the GCC increases with the aggressive interest cuts in the United States and the sharp dollar weakness.

"We forecast a greater than 60 percent probability of currency reform" in the first half of 2008 by one or more states, the bank said, without elaborating whether reform should mean currency de-pegging or revaluation. It suggested however that the UAE or Qatar might lead the way, while saying it might be done by the GCC as a whole. Meanwhile, Yusha suggested that the link to the dollar should be revisited without necessarily de-pegging the Gulf currencies, saying this could be done through revaluation.

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So do you think is a good ideal to invest in weak dollar? Better think twice first before you put your money in weak dollar. Do more research the fundamental of dollar and you will know why.

As for me what I think Dollar got a hard time to climb back to pre-credit crunch level. This is due to high level of bad debt in US, unless US come out a new standard for their currency policy that are not Dollar policy.

Does currency hike curb higher oil price?

Oil price for NYMEX is future price that why is at least one month advance contract.

Nov. Oil price is USD$ 90/barrel

Mar. Oil price is USD$105/barrel

Base on the currency Chart for one SG Dollar that exchange in US Dollar.
We get the Oct. exchange rate at 0.68 for buying Nov. Oil contract at NYMEX.

and get Feb. exchange rate at 0.705 for buying Mar. Oil contract at NYMEX.

Working on Nov. Oil :-

Using SG Dollar to buy Nov. Oil, therefore 1/US$0.68 = SG$1.47058

SG$1.47058 X US$90/Barrel = SG$132.35220

Working on Mar. Oil :-
Using SG Dollar to buy Mar. Oil, therefore 1/US$0.705=SG$1.41843

SG$1.41843 X US$105/Barrel = SG$148.93515

The difference is 148.93515 - 132.35220 = 16.58295

that is for 11.1% increase currency hike for SG Dollar to buy the oil at NYMEX.

If let's say SG Currency fixed at Oct. exchange rate to buy Mar. Oil at NYMEX.

(Mean that SG Dollar don't get any hike)

Working:-

SG$1.47058 X US$105/Barrel = SG$154.41090

The difference is 154.41090 - 132.35220 = 22.05870

This is very expensive to fixed the currency for buying the growing high oil price.

This is the Pro for currency hike to curbing higher oil price but is bad for exporting goods to other trading country, because high SG Dollar other country people will have to pay more to buy SG Goods.

I believe that oil price will goes down in the middle term this is due to most country adjust their economy growth to lower and the winter in cold country is goes to ended soon.

New York bridge is falling down! - US Dollar is falling..

By looking at this chart you will know US Dollar is falling and Japanese Yen is raising.
This will making more inflation to the world economy just because of cheap US Dollar in the near future, just don't forget those commodity product are priced in US$ and the buyers are from the country from the whole world because their currency is going up and up..they have a lot of saving to buy those commodity.

It look like Japan may head a recession, maybe to Japanese recession is not a big deal because they have went thru a very long recession since that burst of property bubble (that is 1989 time...) I can't image that one US Dollar can only buy 97 Japanese Yen (Forex Exchange rate on 17/03/2008) that can tell you Japanese goods are expensive. To those who are able to go to Japan for a tour that they are well loaded with cash. most of the people will start to thinking of buying US goods when US Dollar is falling to the lowest like 1.20 or 1.15?...who will know how low the Dollar will goes? can't tell.

There is a lot used of US Dollar in many products, like Oil, Gold, commodity, most of the country in the whole world their saving (reserves) are in US Dollars that is a lot..that are talking about 1/8 trillion or 1/2 trillions..like China is ready having more than a Trillion in their reserves.
NOTE: US Dollar is a "reserves currency" that are commonly used in the world. There is noway for a Top billionair to manipulate US Dollar movement because it too huge for manipulate you are talking about a country level in controling the currecny that needed a few billions..unless a few central banks make-up together for invention the Forex market then the US Dollar will follow as their wish. if not they just don't like US Dollar like what some OPEC countries going to do about the US Dollar in the future (recent news only)...

Following day may will be happening because most of the US Banks, lenders and brokers going to report their earning in this week. so there will be a market meltdown again. This type of market only headed for selling only, good for short seller. I feel that 2nd Quarter of this year maybe is the bottom if US economy can really avoid the recession if not,...all the way down. that tell me something like Japan's property bubble during 1990's. now you can know it about how bad, just to get you the feel. What the US Fed can do is printing more and more US Dollar notes that what American said "Paper Dollar"....print more US Dollar note will cause the falling in currency Value and making other Foreign currency to rising...

American alway said "In God We Trust" let the God make the faith.

Will Oil price continue to rise?

Future oil price believe to stay at $100 and above but in the mean time there should be a correction in oil price in the short term is because most of the countries are try hard to let their economy to slow down for control the recent high inflation, also the weather in cold country will went into warm weather soon.

If the Oil price still staying high, is would tell they can afford at current price with the amount of oil that they want, then after if they can't afford the Oil price would fall. This would have to wait until most of them exhausted in their fund for purchased Oil.

We can never know when and where in the world oil well is going to run at peak rate that so call peak oil in oil and gas industry.

For your information an average oil well will run completed dry that will be about 45 years for a average size of oil well we are talking about. but not for Saudi's giant Ghawar field, the world's largest oil field, with estimated remaining reserves of 70 billion barrels. That field is the largest and have not yet reach it oil peak production, also that is couldn't know it that is when.

Creative Technology could be bullish in the future.

The stock price have reach high again, it had cut thru 200 day moving average. We can have the time to watch it if the company business is good, the price maybe will break $10 level for a test. buying Creative Technology have the advantage that is they do have good dividend paid out that able to keep some income in your pocket.

Time for buying in 2008 maybe fall within March to April when I guess the bottom will be there as what the stock analysts said this year will be a S shape growth for economy and end of the year maybe had a rally, that should be able to form S shape growth chart.

US will not fall into recession but will had slow growth.

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in the recent G7 meeting that US will not fall into Recession but will have a slow growth. The aim for the G7 meeting is to be more open in the sub prime figure bad debt write off and other important information as well. This will help each and other counties in coping with the credit crunch crisis in Finanical Market that may ensure the economy is moving and is not falling into recession. So this meeting is expected to keep the economy on track and crub inflation for this year.

For the coming future the Fed will be easy then before in performing his job as a lot of the thing is fall within his expectation.

OPEC will may ditch US Dollar.

As you can read from the TELETEXT the future of the US Dollar is going to be a bearish trend. I don't have any figure on how much US printed the Dollar notes in this world, but there is economist that ever mention US itself only hold 20% and the rest of the countries holding 80% of the US Dollars if they are all added together it will be roughly around a Tens of Trillions of US Dollars, I just guess only... (There is no document can proof how much they have printed.)

Will there a trend of untie the Dollar with their products? Just like what the OPEC is going to do.

This is a unstoppable trend for those people to do as what OPEC does, because they also don't want their value to get weaker. So if this trend get stronger, people might avoid Dollar more often and the Dollar will be getting even weaker.

Most of the Market tie with Dollar, example Oil (US$/barrel), gold (US$/Kg), metals and other more commodities. Why US want to do in this way, this is because the more consumer want the commodity they have to sell their currency to buy Dollar for the commodity that they wanted to buy. This will be talk in Foreign Exchange (Forex), example 1 US Dollar buy 120 Japanese Yen that is last time rate, now the rate is 1 US Dollar buy 107 Japanese Yen, this mean the US Dollar is getting weaker and the Japanese Yen is getting stronger.

Weaker currency will have their advantage and disadvantage. The Advantage is the exporting trade will get strong as the goods for US is getting cheaper so consumer from other countries buy more. For the Disadvantage is weaker dollar cannot curb the high inflation. This all will be talk in economic study in degree course.

If US Dollar want to be strong again, US Govt. will have to put more productivity in their high end / high value export, cut down the most of their Govt. spending, regain the strong Dollar diplomat by asking other countries currency to tie with Dollar for not to sell Dollar (also by Exchange other things). once US govt. have the more money they will have to buy back their debts fast to keep their Dollar strong.

This Year US GDP is expected below 2%, many of the economist is expected to see this to be happen even the US economy will no fall into recession as what the US President and Fed expected for the 2008 US economy.

All this will depend on the new US Govt. to defence for their Strong Dollar policy. Question now is Who will be the next US Govt....?

Reference:-

United States public debt

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK -News (you can keep track on this link for the news.)
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

NOTE: This Article is just for a prediction only, the trend of the currency itself will be change by time to time when the Central Bank intervation the Markets, Monetary Policy and others more.

Recent Major Market melt down.

World's Largest Bond Insurers Collapsing!

Bush's $145 billion stimulus package is for short term relief.

The $145 billion stimulus package cannot help US to pull out of subprime mortgage financial crisis, this stimulus help US and other countries to escape from recession risk but slow growth is unavoidable in the coming future. it will take a long time for a fully recovery stage as right now US Govt. are in huge debts and they just can't simply offer to print more US Dollar notes. (9 trillions plus of bad debts) Why US able to build up so huge debt? They know the way to refinancial by using their huge debts that cause so huge. (They know how to borrow but they don't know how to pay back that huge debts, on one able to settle this problem either their govt. and their Fed too - This will build up a more huge risk in the coming future US if the huge debts is not going to reduce.)

From 16th Jan 2008 and 17th Jan 2008 market movement that tell me most of the countries are depend on US for their major trade partner in that mean once US is falling the whole trade partner to US is falling too.

Anyway Bush take this action that show that he are a responsibility US president even his term is going to be ended soon and recession may avoided in short term (one year?). Compare EU (European Union) and US their action taken in their package is difference, in last year's August, September and Octcber EU have injected more than 250 billions of money into their banking system for the relief. I guess in the coming future's economic superpower maybe not going to be US again that holding more than one century title (next is who? China?).

China maybe want to slow down their overheat economy in the coming future but for 5 year down the road China is still good to be invested in, as the recent UK is looking for China to increase the trade. India is a good choice to be invested in as EU is increasing their investment recently. To have a good investment choice read more newspaper and internet news to know more future market movement.

Referance:-
-Rank Order of countries Debt
-Rank Order of countries Public debt
-Rank Order of countries GDP (purchasing power parity)
-US Debt news

STI drop near to 3000 level.

Now is only begining of the year 2008 and is only the first month of the year 2008. We can see this bad market sell down at this time, this maybe mean we can see even bad than this in the coming future. as What I know those banks bad loan write off will last until mid of 2008 or Q308 the later, after that may will have a turning point in the market.

Now we have to watch Fed Chairman or US president are they able to resolve?

US is a country that alway printing Dollar notes this is one of the way to resolve or US govt. selling their asset to rich nation, selling Military Arm to some money to kill this problem that is second way of doing in US, this is what I know how they rise their money and there is a few method more...

Singapore analysts target STI will go 4000 level at this year end 2008 and 3000 is the expected low for 2008 but right now we already see STI at near 3000 today. no sure how low STI will go? We shall watch.

Another place to put your money at this time.

The US sub prime causing a credit crunch that force the Banks to sell their stock in the market, this may last for 6 month to 1 year time and is depend on the US govt. to take a very effective action to make their economic to go for a growth instead of recession.

I saw this DBS Enhanced income is growing day by day, is a good place to your money in for 6 month to 1 year time. Why 6 month to 1 year time? those bank's write off may will last until 6 month to 1 year time, as the write off is reduce or gone the market may start to have a turning point by that time the market may have a bull rally. This is depend on many other facts that add in to have a bull rally.

This is another place to think of. The DBS Enhanced Income.

Streettracks Gold is on the rise.

The price for 10 Jan. 2008 is at the all time high, it break the 52 weeks high, this maybe tell you that major market cashflow is going to Gold. Gold is a safer place for the cash to place and future Gold price may expected more even higher than present price.

Market now is mostly seller more then buyer and world market are lack of cashflow as this is the effect of credit crunch that causes. Major bank like citibank, Goldman and others will keep selling their share for keeping the cash for running their core business.

On the other side if the Bank stock price keep on down, may can watchout for their bottom and grab it if you can, anyway bank is one to more the country economy by offer loan to those businesses.

Most of the market analysts expected to see Gold price at US$1000, I just keep to see the price to hit this price US$1000 level.

Next we have to watch what can US Govt. do to help their economy in the year of 2008, as Bush expected 2008 will have a growth rather than slow down.

Will US fall into deflation like Japan's 1990 bubble? I shall watch it...

Reccession Odds- Greenspan 50%, Merrill 100%

In an interview this morning with NPR, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said that the odds of a recession are "clearly rising" and are now about 50%.
click for NPR radio broadcastEarlier on Thursday, CNBC reported that Greenspan raised his view of chances of a U.S. recession to 50%, from 30%:

"Greenspan said it's too soon to say whether a recession is coming, "but the odds are clearly rising."
"We're getting close to stall speed" in economic growth, he said. "And we are far more vulnerable at levels where growth is so slow than we would be otherwise. Indeed ... somebody who has an immune system which is not working very well is subject to all sorts of diseases, and the economy at this level of growth is subject to all sorts of potential shocks."
~~~
The former Fed chair is downright chipper compared with some of the data crunchers over at Merrill Lynch: They look at the simple formula involving the Yield Curve and Corporate Spreads. This correctly forecast the 2001 and 1990-91 recessions.
Based on Merrill's read of these two elements -- and I don't know precisely what they do to generate this chart based on those factors -- they have a much more distraught view of the economy than the Maestro:>100% Chance of Showers

Chart courtesy of Merrill Lynch, Gartman Letter
>
If any one can tell me how this chart gets assembled and massaged, it would be greatly appreciated . . .
>
Sources:Greenspan: Recession Odds 'Clearly Rising'NPR, Morning Edition, December 14, 2007http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=17210282
Merrill Lynch Global Research
Greenspan Says Recession Odds Are `Clearly Rising' Vivien Lou ChenBloomberg, Dec. 14 2007http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGyhKOCi4xdU&

Economists say 2008 may will be a year to forget.

Analysts at American Economic Association now see recession as a given

NEW ORLEANS -- Gathered in this city struggling to regain its footing after Hurricane Katrina, a group of leading economists said the U.S. is getting hit by another damaging storm: the global credit crunch.

Many analysts gathered at the American Economic Association's two-day annual meeting spoke of a recession as almost a given but differed over how severe it will be.
"The recession is likely to be a serious one," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

He estimated losses in prime mortgages will be two to three times the $160-$200 billion hit seen in the subprime sector. This, he said, will lead to large losses at banks and difficulty for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

University of Chicago professor of finance and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, Raghuram Rajan, said questions in the media over whether the U.S. economy will fall into recession are really only about semantics.

"We are going to have very low growth in the first two quarters of the year. Whether it is negative or zero, it is going to feel like the same thing," Rajan said.
But he added that it remains an "open question" whether an even more serious slowdown develops in the second half of the year.

"One of the big issues is the extent to which the credit crunch initiated by the subprime crisis starts spreading and how much does it affect smaller corporations and poorly rated corporations," he said. "Do we have a bank credit crunch which starts impacting on retail credit for small and medium enterprises? There is some uncertainty."

Alistair Milne, a professor at the City University of London's Cass Business School, told MarketWatch he's expecting "a really weak year," but added that "it is too early to say how deep the crisis is going to get."

"There has been a substantial credit expansion in many areas -- not just subprime -- over the past five to 10 years," he said. But now, with credit now under pressure, he sees the risk of a vicious cycle developing where the decline in bank lending pushes down growth, which further reduces bank lending.

"If there is a severe enough downturn, it will make all the credit problems worse," he said, adding that the crisis would also hit credit card debt and leverages buyout loans.
But Milne also pointed to a bright spot, namely sovereign wealth funds pouring money into troubled banks, which shores up capital and could help prevent an extreme economic downturn.
He also said that the Federal Reserve is moving in the right direction and that the European Central Bank is likely to follow with rate cuts within six months, adding that a negative economic shock will take the pressure off inflation eventually.

Still, he said, the economy won't likely get back on track until 2010 and will require more capital from overseas.

Can the government help?

Several economists at the conference said attention needs to turn to a possible government stimulus package to take the punch out of the downturn.

The likely magnitude of coming economic difficulties makes it important for Congress to take action on the fiscal side, complimenting easing by the Federal Reserve, they said.

President Bush has also indicated support for crafting a stimulus package to help the economy.
But many analysts argued that the government may be powerless to prevent a downturn.
"My sense is that even though the government wants to be seen as reactive, there is not that much they can do at this point," Rajan said. "Monetary policy has lags of a year. It can't revive lending that isn't taking place because banks have capital constraints."

Baker said he supports the idea of a stimulus package but added that it has to be big -- over $100 billion -- and it has to be fast.

Princeton economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman was skeptical that Congress would put aside partisan politics over tax policy in order to pass such measures.
"One side will not accept tax cuts for rich people, and the other side won't take fiscal action without tax cuts for the rich," he said.

The news are from MarketWatch.

There maybe stand a chance for recession...

This is cause by US economy slow down that may hurt other country like Japan. there is news on Goldman Sach that comment Japan economy will stand a 50% chance of recession. Here is the news:-

Date: 10 Jan. 2008.
Goldman Sachs Group cut its economic growth estimate for Japan and said there's a 50 percent chance of a recession in the world's second-largest economy. ``The probability of a recession in Japan has risen to the danger level,'' Tetsufumi Yamakawa, chief Japan economist at Goldman,
said in a report to clients today. ``We project weaker- thanexpected growth in Japan.'' The nation's economy will continue to slow ``for the time being,'' Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto said today. The housing slump in the U.S., which Goldman yesterday said may
already be in recession, could prompt overseas investors to sell real estate holdings in Japan, Credit Suisse Group said today.

Yamakawa cut his 2008 growth estimate to 1 percent from 1.2 percent, citing slower demand from emerging markets. Stocks including Mitsubishi Estate Co. declined today after the Credit Suisse report. Japan's leading index, a gauge of growth in the next three to six months, stalled in November, a report today showed.
``Goldman's report highlighting the increasing chances of a recession, as well as the leading index's poor showing, indicates the outlook for external and internal demand is nonexistent,'' said Hiroaki Osakabe, who helps oversee $365 million at Chiba-Gin Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.

Sluggish spending by consumers has left Japan more dependant on overseas markets, just as cooling U.S. demand threatens to spread to Asia, where Japan sells half its exports.

Slashing Interest Rates.
Goldman yesterday said slower growth in the world's largest- economy may force the U.S. Federal Reserve to slash interest rates. It predicts the Fed to cut its benchmark rate to 2.5 percent by the third quarter, after saying in November it would reduce the key rate, currently at 4.25 percent, to 3 percent by the middle of 2008.

Earnings gains among Standard & Poor's 500 Index members may have averaged 8.1 percent from a year earlier, the slowest growth in six years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The Bank of Japan probably won't be able to raise its key interest rate, the lowest among industrialized nations, this year because of the recession risk, Yamakawa said. The cycle of rising corporate profits feeding into wages and consumer spending is losing momentum and the bank will conduct policy ``with discretion,'' Muto said in a speech in Sapporo, northern Japan.

`Increasingly Cautious'
``Muto is signaling the Bank of Japan is becoming increasingly cautious about the downside risks for the economy,'' said Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``The central bank is already veering from its path of raising rates.''

And there is news that comment on Alan Greenspan:-

Date: 10 Jan. 2008.
The next bubble to deflate may be Alan Greenspan's reputation. Hailed as perhaps the greatest central banker who ever lived when he left the Federal Reserve in 2006, Greenspan is under
attack from critics ranging from the New York Times to economists at the American Enterprise Institute for his handling of the 2000-2005 housing boom. The former Fed chairman has taken to the media to defend himself, writing in the Wall Street Journal and appearing on network television.

``He's had a bubble reputation that derived from the growth of U.S. household wealth,'' said Edward Chancellor, author of ``Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation.'' ``As that goes down, his standing as a superstar will suffer.''
At stake is not only Greenspan's legacy but also the future of policies he espoused during 18-1/2 years atop the central bank. Critics blame his aversion to regulation and reluctance to use interest rates to puncture asset bubbles for the boom in house prices and mortgage lending that has since gone bust, threatening to throw the economy into recession.

In an interview, Greenspan said such criticism ignores limits on what regulation and monetary policy can achieve.


Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has already moved away from the laissez-faire approach of his
predecessor by proposing new restrictions on subprime mortgages.

High Marks
Academics, including Princeton University professor and former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder, Fed historian and Carnegie Mellon University economist Allan Meltzer and Stephen Cecchetti, a former Fed official now at Brandeis University, generally give Greenspan high marks for his performance as chairman. During his tenure, the economy weathered two recessions, each lasting less than a year, and enjoyed its longest expansion ever.

Some of the earlier enthusiasm for Greenspan's tenure has been tempered by the performance of the economy, particularly the housing market, since he left. Blinder, who wrote in a 2005 paper that Greenspan might be the greatest central banker, now hedges on whether that assessment still stands.

Greenspan still merits a ``summa cum laude'' for his conduct of monetary policy, he said. The 81-year old former Fed chief falls short of that lofty grade, though, for his oversight of the banking industry, Blinder said.

`Slow on the Draw'
``The Fed and the other regulatory agencies were slow on the draw,'' Blinder said. ``They could have made this debacle substantially smaller, not by better monetary policy, but by better regulatory and supervisory policy.''

Desmond Lachman, a former International Monetary Fund official now at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, blames Greenspan's libertarian bent for his failure to curb lending abuses:

``That philosophy got us into a lot of trouble.''
Greenspan said in the interview that, while the Fed's bank examiners were hard at work during the mortgage-lending boom, ``we have to be realistic about what regulators can and cannot do.''
``It is extremely rare to uncover fraud other than through whistle-blowers,'' he said. ``You don't get at it through internal audits, you don't get it through outside audits and you certainly don't get it through bank examinations.''


Rates Too Low
Some economists, including Blinder, also fault Greenspan for fostering the housing bubble by keeping interest rates too low for too long. The Fed cut its benchmark rate to a 45-year low of 1 percent in June 2003, held it there for a year, then raised it only gradually, in quarter-percentage-point increments.

``For that episode of monetary policy, I would probably give him a B, where my overall grade is A or Aplus,'' Blinder said.

A simulation by Stanford University professor John Taylor suggested that much of the housing boom could have been avoided if the Fed hadn't cut rates so deeply and had raised them back up more quickly.

Meltzer said that while Greenspan was a ``great Fed chairman,'' he erred in ignoring warnings about the risks of keeping rates low.

``I think he lets himself off much too easy,'' Meltzer said, adding that he told Greenspan at the time that he was exaggerating the danger of deflation and thus making a mistake in cutting interest rates to 1 percent.

Rethinking Approach

Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics Inc. in New York, said the Fed's experience is leading other central banks to rethink their approach to asset bubbles.

``There is a growing body of thinking in central banking that one should not let these bubbles run and allow them to burst,'' he said. ``They should lean against them.''
Greenspan disagrees with such a strategy. ``There is no evidence that it works other than in computer models,'' the former Fed chief said. He noted that the stock market merely leveled off when the Fed doubled interest rates to 6 percent in 1994-95, then resumed its climb.
Greenspan maintained that the housing bubble was inflated not by the Fed's monetary policy but by a global savings glut that held down long-term interest rates worldwide.
As evidence, he pointed out that the U.S. wasn't alone in experiencing a housing boom in the early 2000s. The IMF said in its World Economic Outlook last October that other nations, including Britain, Spain and Australia, experienced bigger house price run-ups than the U.S.
Cecchetti, professor of international economics at Brandeis' International Business School, said it's natural that Greenspan's legacy is being reassessed.

``With distance, you get perspective,'' he said. ``We'll get a much more balanced view of the
Greenspan legacy as the years go by.''

The above two news are from Bloomberg.

Gold can be look at it in 2008.

2008 outlook equity in singapore market will still affected in first half of 2008 by US's SubPrime crisis chain reaction. Therefore Gold can be looking for it.





Is there a recession in 2008?

Good stock to be introduce - FerroChina.

The stock that I going to introduce is FerroChina, this is not a China company, why is it so?
Because they are a group of people that are expert in Galvanized steel making that are from Taiwan. They are using a fairly cheaper method of manfacturing and enviromental friendly way to produce masses tonnes of Galvanized steel, They claim that they are the leading Galvanized steel maker in China. Galvanized steel is very potential in China, because they are cheaper to be purchase by common China people to used the Galvanized steel for building of their house, this is the recent China housing building method as they use, China have phase out the old method of building their house. And in the coming future China will have many major big events that needed Galvanized steel as the structure of building, like Beijing 2008 Olympic Games and other many..etc.

This is the part of the story of FerroChina started in China:-
In Oct.2003, the company's Board of Directors decided to increase the total investment by US$22,500,000 to bring in another hot-dip galvanizing line with the design annual production capacity of 400,000 tonnes (i.e. Stage2 of the Project). Total increased investment capital in phase Ⅲ is USD 60.2 million, the design annual production capacity of phase Ⅲ is 400,000 tonnes. And increased registered capital is USD 30.88million.The land square is 150 mu(i.e. 100050 m2 ).

Now Changshu Xingdao Advanced Building-Material Co., Ltd is fully owned by Ferrochina Limited, which is incorporated in Bermuda .

With the aim to obtaining the greatest value for all involved parties by means of strengthening economic co-operation, technical communication guided by the win-win strategy ,the company will frankly cooperate with its partners, suppliers and customers and continuously upgrade the quality of the products through application of advanced foreign equipments and technologies. Meanwhile the company will give more attention to protect the environment. More energy will be spent on exploiting the foreign advanced building-material markets and satisfying the needs of our various customers. All employees of the company will sincerely act on the policy of team sprit, continuous improvement, innovation and value creation and continuously pursue the state of super excellence. The company will make great effort to promote the local economy through hard working. The company will also actively take part in and promote the development of local society's culture, education, medical care system and social welfare.

They are from the FerrorChina website:-
The History http://www.ferro-china.com/history.asp
http://www.xing-dao.com/en/lsyg.asp
http://www.xing-dao.com/en/scsb.asp

Investor http://www.ferro-china.com/investor.asp

Inside trading http://www.ferro-china.com/investor.asp

The FerroChina Video Steaming. (This will make you more confident in FerroChina)
Corporate Video Click here to download

IPO Launch Video Presentation http://ss1.shareinvestor.com/ir/ferrochina/ipo_launch/index.htm

1HFY2005 Results Presentation http://ss1.shareinvestor.com/ir/ferrochina/1h05/index.htm

1HFY2006 Results Presentation http://ss1.shareinvestor.com/ir/ferrochina/1hfy2006/Web/Script/index_IE.htm

newspress http://www.listedcompany.com/ir/ferrochina/newsroom/newsroom.cgi?

Companies Earning Announcement Date.

The coming future companies earning announcement may will put pressure on STI index to push even high than present 3600, something like 3700 to 3800 or even higher may expected.

So watchout for those date, it maybe the one of your portfolio stock that coming to earning announcement.

if the economy is going for a bad performanc the first to see is those company will report bad earning and they will be putting up a profit warning. we shall see how many of them are on the earning track.

Good Luck to you.

In God We Trust?

AP Oil at it's historical high.

Stock price of the AP Oil had rised that show the investor is confident on the future growth, I believe the future growth is potential as the CEO and the management know how to manage business and the company that will keep AP Oil on the growing path.

The above chart is the all year chart for AP Oil, it had aready hit $0.40 level that break the historical high. if they manage well for 2007 the stock price maybe see beyond $0.40 that give investor a confident on their business and their management.

I myself had bought at 0.14 @ 56000 shares, if look at present price it will have a profit of 65%

= [(0.40 -0.14) /0.40 ] X 100

Is nice to see that kind of result if you can spot the potential of the company that able to making money. stock investment needed to do homework, it's not a gamble game, because I'm not a stock trader but I'm a value and growth investor. understand their business so that you are able to profit from it.

Stock List Earning per shares 04/07/2007.

This is my personal potential stock list to watch out for:-
The list of value are the estimated earning per shares for this year 2007, the actual value of EPS maybe hit low than the listed here.

Stock name ------EPS (estimated)
ASIA Water ------- 0.33
AMTEK ---------- 0.09
Beauty China ----- 0.09
Best World ------- 0.10
China Essence ---- 0.46
China Fish -------- 0.13
China Milk ------- 0.52
China Petrotech -- 0.05
DeLong ---------- 0.36
FerrorChina ----- 1.14 (Rmb)
Global Testing --- 0.02
HG Metal ------- 0.07
Ho Bee ---------- 0.28
Innovalues ------ 0.06
KS Enegry ------ 0.24
LongCheer ------ 0.12
People Food ----- 0.78
TPV ------------- 0.10
UTAC ----------- 0.09
YHI ------------- 0.05

NOTE: Buy at your own risk! If you buying base on the above listed the risk is in your own hand and you are the ownership!

Rising oil prices test consumer.

if the high oil price stay up for quite sometime then there will have inflation occur. if there high oil price can be avoid that is a good things to see.

Will Hi-P recover this year?

Recently Suisse have upgraded HI-P International Ltd from "underperform"to "outperform"
with a target of $0.93

On the other side HI-P International Ltd hope that earnings will recover this year.

Hi-P International Ltd net profit for last year slumped 35.5% to S$57 millions as margins were
pressured by the higher material content of its product mix, higher staff costs
and excess capacity. The higher material is a main concern on higher crude oil price.

Plastic is a material that made by crude oil, tool steel that they used in making tools for plastic injection mould and others that needed steel material that are used the higher steel price.

The process of making plastic injection mould required some EDM process to form the complex profile of the plastic part required. most common used of electrode in EDM are copper which the price of copper have goes up a lot. Copper are in the demand that cause by lack of supply, mined copper supply are way behind the copper demand that are one of the reason that cause higher in price. The copper mine are getting hard to find in the world, supplying of copper are believe to be remain tight in the coming years if there is no solution on increasing the supply. recycle of copper does help to cool down the demand by a bit but it will not last long as China and india are continous to growing and developing.

if the crude oil price and copper price can slight down by increase the supply HI-P International Ltd may benefit from it. Govt. Tax cut may help HI-P International Ltd a little but will not last long in the long term business. They may have to change their overall business strategy to place themselve in a most benefit way. Will the increase of GST help HI-P International Ltd in their business?

So what can HI-P International Ltd promise their investors that the stock price will goes up? hoping to see a recover? Think about it first...

Company web site: http://www.hi-p.com

AUDITORS

Ernst & Young

BACKGROUND

The Company was incorporated in Singapore on 26 December 1980 under the name of Hi-P Tool & Die Pte Ltd. It changed the name to Hi-P Singapore Pte Ltd on 5 February 1997 and subsequently to Hi-P International Pte Ltd on 12 October 2000. It adopts its current name on 10 October 2003.Hi-P is an integrated contract manufacturing services provider specialising in precision plastic injection molding, mold design and fabrication, assembly, surface finishing and precision metal stamping. It provides turnkey contract manufacturing services to its customers in the consumer electronics & electrical industry. Its customers are mainly multi-national original equipment manufacturers in:• Telecommunications• Consumer electronics & electrical• Data storage• Life sciences / medical• AutomotiveIts principal markets include China, Singapore, USA and Europe. Its customers' end products include mobile phones, razors, electric toothbrushes, electric shavers, hairdryers, cameras (digital, reloadable and disposable), hard disk drives and medical devices.Some of its major customers include Motorola, Gillette, Braun, Siemens, Kodak, Seagate, Maxtor and Elcoteq. It has a total of 16 manufacturing plants, 13 in China (Shanghai, Chengdu, Xiamen, Tianjin, Qingdao, Suzhou), 2 in Singapore and another in Mexico.

Summary
Hi-P International Limited, together with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the design and fabrication of mold (MDF), precision plastic injection molding (PPIM), assembly, provision of ancillary value-added services (mainly surface finishing services) and precision metal stamping. The Company's subsidiaries are engaged in the manufacture of molds, manufacture of plastic injection parts, manufacture of camera products, spray painting, manufacture and sale of plastic product modules, manufacture of molds and related appliance plastic components, manufacture of metal precision components, provision of engineering support services, international sales and marketing activities, manufacture and production of in-mold decoration lenses, design and sales of electro-mechanical components, and manufacture of precision-stamped metal components and precision tools and die design and fabrication.

Will global economy entering a recession in 2007 or 2008?

The Recent global market sell-off is probably due to profit-taking more than a signal that the global economy is entering a recession?

There are Fund managers thinking of global economy maybe entering a recession this year 2007, but there is no positive idication of recession in asia market and business, there is news articles that post on world bank expected that global economy would see a slow down in 2007 and 2008. World Bank had come out a report on "Global Economic Prospects 2007" but the report needed to be purchase for reading.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan mention that "a recession in the U.S. is possible" which doesn't in-line with the present Federal Chairman Bernanke's outlook.

I have did a search on "market outlook 2007" to study more on outlook 2007 that written by those analysts out there. Is better to do your own research to know more about economy, is easy just do a search on engine to study those articles that posted on internet.

Or what you also can do is attend seminar that conducted by those fund manager like an example "Aberdeen Asset Management" they are the expert, they will do those study and conclude the outlook for you.

An advice to you is invest carefully, just do watchout for market news from time to time.

AP Oil had hit new high again, they have back in black again!

Hi reader, catch those summary point for AP Oil, those summary will be your guide in your investment. I have try my best to write everythings that I know.

环球石油集团去年全年取得690万元的净利，扭转了前年的亏损情况。

集团去年的收入激增41.8％，达6550万元。其中3550万元来自贸易；1896万元来自制造；1085万元来自特许经营。每股盈利报5.29分。集团每股净有形资产跃高72.8％至12.89分。
脱售AP石化（越南），使得环球石油集团获得一笔995万元左右的现金。
由于业绩好转，同时为了奖励长期支持集团的股东，它拟以每四股给一股的比例，派发红股。
环球石油往后将有四个增长策略：-一、在现有的市场增加宽度和深度，包括越南、中国和印尼；二、开拓新市场——印度、巴基斯坦、斯里兰卡和非洲；三、特许经营，希望在印度半岛和中东把最成功的孟加拉特许经营模式加以复制应用；四、合并与收购。

AP OIL International last year had made a net profit of $6.9 million, reversing the previous year's loss.This also back in the black for its 2006 financial year.
The lubricant and chemical specialist announced yesterday a net profit attributable to equity-holders of $6.97 million for FY2006, against a loss of $5.56 million for FY2005. Earnings per share came to 5.29 cents.

AP Oil has proposed a bonus issue of one new share for every four existing shares.
It attributed the turnaround to higher revenue, which grew 41.8 per cent to $65.48 million; better gross margins for its core businesses; and a $4.9 million extraordinary gain from the sale of its subsidiary AP Petrochemical Pte Ltd, which owned 80 per cent of AP Petrochemical (Vietnam) Co Ltd.

AP Oil Future growth strategy will be four of them:-

1.) Increase the breadth and depth of the existing market, including Vietnam, China and Indonesia.

2.) Opening up new markets -- India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Africa

3.) Franchising, in the Indian peninsula and the Middle East Bengal the most successful franchise model to replicate application.

4.) Mergers and acquisitions.

http://www.zaobao.com/cj/cj070223_524.html

http://business-times.asiaone.com/sub/companies/story/0,4574,225409,00.html?

AP Oil International Limited is a Singapore-based company engaged in the manufacture of lubricating oil, import and export of oil and fuel, dealing in paraffin wax, lubricating oil and grease, and investment holding. The Company's business segments include manufacturing, trading, and franchising and outsourcing. The manufacturing segment manufactures a range of lubricating oils and fluids, and specialty chemicals for industrial, automotive and marine applications, and provides blending services to its customers. The trading segment trades in base oil and additives, and specialty chemicals. The franchising and outsourcing segment trades in base oil and additives using the Company's brand name. AP Oil International Limited's sales are mainly to South East Asia, Indo-China, East Asia and other countries. AP Oil International Limited has formed a joint venture company in the Philippines, AP Tang Mining (Phil) Corp.